The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. I dont listen to the news. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. You have to take the lesser of two evils. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. On . Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. People need to get a job, get out and work. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Port Clinton, Ohio. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. We were as far down to five cooks last year. What happened to our Democratic Party? Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. They need to take care of the older people here. . In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. . President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Right now, its horrible. But thats not the picture I look at. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. But according to the. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Their fear is real, mine is. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. To accept cookies, click continue. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. He cares about the American people.. Your email address will not be published. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Two states have announced recounts. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. He says Democratic Gov. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. I think its very political right now, honestly. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. I believe in a time cycle. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. I find that hard to believe. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Im not happy with either party. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. I think it worked out without me.. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . We believe that there are two main reasons. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. I dont watch TV. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Im looking at both sides of it. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. 2016 Trump. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? It will cycle through. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. Weve never done that before.. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Bremer County, Iowa I hope.. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. He says hell vote for Trump. I think all politicians are crooks. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008.

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